Thunder vs. Mavericks prediction, odds, pick, spread

The Oklahoma City Thunder will fight with Dallas Mavericks on Friday. It will be a battle at American Airlines Arena as we continue our NBA odds series and make a Thunder-Mavericks prediction and pick.

The Thunder lead the series 91-85. Recently, the The Thunder beat the Mavericks 118-104 on Dec. 10, 2024, avenging a 121-119 loss from Nov. 17, 2024. The Thunder are 7-3 in their last 10 games against the Mavs, including 3-2 in their last five games in Dallas.

Here are the Thunder-Mavericks NBA oddscourtesy of FanDuel.

NBA odds: Thunder-Mavericks odds

Oklahoma City Thunder: -6.5 (-110)

Moneilines: -260

Dallas Mavericks: +6.5 (-110)

Moneiline: +215

More: 222 (-110)

Under: 222 (-110)

How to watch Thunder vs. Mavericks

Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30 PM PT

TV: KFAA and FanDuel Sports Oklahoma

*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why might thunder cover the spread/win

Mark Daigneault was quietly an elite coach who led his Thunder to the best record in the Western Conference. Amazingly, this team continues to find ways to win, even when faced with obstacles. But they played most of the games to perfection.

When they beat the Mavericks last month, they did it by simply overwhelming them. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 39 points and eight rebounds in that game while shooting 15-for-23 from the field, including 5-for-9 from the three-point line. Also, Jaylen Williams added 18 points while shooting 8 for 21 from the floor. Lugence Dort and Cason Wallace each had 11 points while shooting 4 for 10. Additionally, Isaiah Hartenstein had 10 points and 13 rebounds while shooting 5 for 11 from the floor.

The Thunder won despite shooting just 45.5 percent from the field. However, they also shot 40 percent from the three-point line. The Thunder also shot 85.7 percent from the charity stripe. They also won the game 52-44, including 17 offensive rebounds. The Thunder also had 14 steals to force 18 turnovers. They also blocked five shots. The Thunder also played excellent defense in this game, holding the Mavs to 47.5 percent from the field, including 41.7 percent from beyond the arc.

The Thunder will cover the spread if they can continue to shoot the rock, avoid turnovers and hit their free throw chances while Gilgeous-Alexander stays hot from all over the court and burns them. Next, their defense must contain the Mavericks and not let them get hot.

Why the Mavericks could cover the spread/win

Kyrie Irving could be back for this game. He recently came back but got injured again. That would be a big boost for the Mavs, since they’ve been without Irving for two weeks and Luka Doncic since Christmas. Somehow, the Mavericks didn’t have a full, healthy lineup in any of their games against the Thunder.

PJ Washington was the leading scorer in their win against the Thunder, scoring 27 points and grabbing 17 rebounds while shooting 7-for-13 from the floor. Irving was also instrumental in the win, scoring 23 points while shooting 9-for-18 from the floor, including 3 for 6 from 3-pointers. Meanwhile, Naji Marshall added 13 points off the bench while shooting 4-for-6 from the floor. Jaden Hardy also had 13 points off the bench while shooting 6 for 9 from the field. Likewise, Daniel Gafford scored 11 points while shooting 4 for 9 from the field.

In that game, the Mavs shot 47.6 percent from the floor, including 40.7 percent from three-pointers. Additionally, they held the Thunder to 49.4 percent from the field, including 33.3 percent from 3-point range. However, their free-throw shooting ability helped them advance as they shot 83.3 percent (30-of-36) from the charity stripe. The Mavs also dominated on the boards in the win, dominating 53-29. Furthermore, they overcame 16 turnovers. The Mavericks need to control the tempo and not get into a race with the Thunder.

The Mavericks will cover the spread if they can dominate the boards and not give the Thunder any second chances. Likewise, they must contain Gilgeous-Alexander and not let him burn them in this game.

Final Thunder-Mavericks Prediction & Pick

The Thunder are 25-12-3 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 19-21-1 against the odds. Furthermore, the Thunder are 12-6-2 against the odds on the road, while the Mavs are 10-10 against the odds at home. The Thunder are 15-9 against the spread when facing the Western Conference, while the Mavericks are 14-17-1 against the odds when facing the West. Notably, the Thunder are 5-2 against the spread when playing for the second game in a row and 5-4-1 against the odds when facing a lack of rest.

The Thunder are big, while the Mavericks are fighting for a playoff spot. If Doncic was available, I’d probably pick the Mavericks to cover. Unfortunately, he won’t play, and Irving may not be 100 percent. Because of these factors, I see the Thunder going to Dallas and doing enough to cover the spread with another great Gilgeous-Alexander performance.

Thunder-Mavericks final prediction and pick: Oklahoma City Thunder: -6.5 (-110)