Nuggets vs Mavericks prediction, odds, pick, spread

The Denver Nuggets will travel to the heart of Texas to face the Dallas Mavericks. It will be a battle at American Airlines Arena as we share our NBA odds series and make a Nuggets-Mavericks prediction and pick.

The Mavericks lead the series 98-93. Finally, the Mavs and Nuggets split two games in Denver this season, The Mavericks won the last game 123-120 in the nails. The Mavs and Nuggets have split their last 10 games and the Mavericks are 4-1 in their last five games against the Nuggets at American Airlines Arena.

Here’s Nuggets-Mavericks NBA oddscourtesy of FanDuel.

NBA odds: Nuggets-Mavericks odds

Denver Nuggets: -4 (-110)

Money line: -174

Dallas Mavericks: +4 (-110)

Moneiline: +146

More: 228 (-110)

Under: 228 (-110)

How to watch Nuggets vs. Mavericks

Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00 PM PT

TV: KFAA and ALT

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Why the Nuggets could cover the spread/win

The Nuggets have all their pieces at their disposal and are ready to go into Dallas and win. Before we get into why they were able to cover the spread, it’s important to detail why they couldn’t in the last two games against the Mavericks. Rather, slow starts and poor defense are the main culprits.

When the Nuggets welcomed the Mavericks to Ball Arena in the last game, they just couldn’t stop them. They trailed 73-57 at halftime. They eventually recovered from that deficit and nearly shocked the Mavs, only to fall short, losing by three points. What made that game worse was the fact that the Mavs were doing this without Luka Doncic. Now the Mavs will not have Doncic or Kyrie Irving. That gives the Nuggets the edge.

Nikola Jokić is still one of the best in the world, entering this game with an average of 31.6 points, 13 rebounds and 9.9 assists per game with 55.6 percent shooting from the floor. Likewise, Jamal Murray is averaging 19 points and 6.2 assists per game while shooting 43.6 percent from the floor, but is questionable for this game due to knee soreness. Michael Porter Jr. is excellent with 19 points per game while shooting 52.1 percent from the floor. also, Russell Westbrook was a solid addition for the Nuggets and is averaging 12.9 points per game.

The Nuggets have struggled with charitable results, ranking 27th in free throw shooting percentage. So it’s no surprise that their inability to hit them cost them the game against the Mavs last time out.

The Nuggets will cover the spread if they can get off to a better start and play better defense to start the game. They must then hit their shots from the free throw line.

Why the Mavericks could cover the spread/win

The the latest Irving injury update revealed that he is still not engaged in basketball activities. Unfortunately, it looks like he won’t be ready for a while yet, as he’s been dealing with back pain since the New Year. Despite not having Doncic or Irving, the Mavericks still went 2-3, including victory over the Los Angeles Lakers. But the schedule is about to get a little tougher, as the Mavs face the Nuggets for two straight games at home and face the Oklahoma City Thunder next week.

Klay Thompson is available and will try to bounce back from a quiet game. Overall, he was solid for the Mavericks, averaging 13.8 points per game while shooting 41.4 percent from the floor. PJ Washington was also solid, averaging 13.4 points and 7.7 rebounds per game while shooting 43.6 percent from the floor. Daniel Gafford was solid, averaging 11.4 points and six rebounds per game while shooting 70.9 percent from the floor.

The Mavericks were elite defensively, ranking fifth in blocked shots. At the end of the day, they’re best off trying to keep Jokic in the paint and not let others hurt them.

The Mavericks will cover the spread if they can get off to a good start and convert their chances at the line. Next, they must continue to defend the rim well, and not dominate Jokic.

Nuggets-Mavericks final prediction and pick

The Nuggets are 17-19-1 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 19-18-1 against the odds. Furthermore, the Nuggets are 8-10 against the odds on the road, while the Mavs are 10-8 against the odds at home. The Nuggets are 12-11-1 against the spread when facing the Western Conference, while the Mavericks are 14-14-1 against the odds when facing the conference.

The Mavs stunned the Nuggets without Jokic in the first. However, doing it again, and this time without Irving, is a tall order. Therefore, I see the Nuggets finding a way to come into Dallas and handle the Mavericks while covering the spread.

Final Nuggets – Mavericks Prediction and Pick: Denver Nuggets: -4 (-110)