New England Patriots’ bold predictions for Mike Vrabel’s first season as head coach

Robert Kraft and The New England Patriots got their man, hiring Mike Vrabel to become their next head coach on Sunday.

While much still needs to happen this offseason, Mayo’s hiring is a strong step in the right direction for the Patriots. The former Tennessee Titans head coach had four winning seasons in his six-year tenure with the team, a far cry from where they were this year with Jerrod Mayo as they went 4-13 for the second straight season before firing him.

So let’s make some predictions and what to expect when Vrabel hosts the show in 2025.

The Patriots will make a big investment at running back

Vrabel has made it known in the past how much he enjoys running the ball, as the Titans have finished in the top 10 in the league in rushing attempts in all but one of his six seasons as their head coach. Of course, the fact that Derrick Henry has certainly helped and played all six years is a big reason why the Titans rank so highly in that statistic.

But with the ground game being a major part of Vrabel’s style, it’s easy to think the Patriots will also be among the top running teams in 2025. However, Rhamondre Stevenson had his second straight season rushing for 801 yards on just 3.9 yards per carry by carrying with six loops (three lost).

Even though Stevenson was extended last offseason, it’s clear that he can’t be the best running back for a team that wants to run the ball a lot. The only problem is that there is no Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry available in free agency this offseason. Still, Najee Harris could be a fit in New England if the Patriots decide to completely move on from Stevenson while working on a mid-round draft pick. New England would lose just over $2 million in cap space if they release Stevenson with the post-June 1 tag.

If the Patriots want to keep Stevenson in the fold, they might use their early second-round pick on a running back to help them land their veteran and add playmaking from the cornerback. Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty would certainly fit the mold of a receiver who has the dual-threat ability and explosiveness the Patriots lack.

Regardless, the Patriots should be expected to shake up their running back in a big way this offseason.

The Patriots will draft either Abdul Carter or Mason Graham with the 4th pick

There are several prospects likely to be available to the Patriots when they are on the clock with the fourth pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Tetairoa McMillan and Travis Hunter would give them explosiveness at wide receiver that they haven’t had in years if they drafted either of them. LSU’s Will Kempel and Texas’ Kelvin Banks could be the left tackles to protect May for years to come. Michigan’s Will Johnson could provide the Patriots with two elite tight end cornerbacks for the foreseeable future.

However, as Vrabel has done throughout his career, his Titans teams had their best seasons when they could get to the quarterback. After Vrabel’s first season as Tennessee’s head coach, the team selected defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons with their first-round pick. He has been a catalyst for that unit since then, consistently ranking high in tackles, sacks and pressures for an interior defensive lineman.

After the Patriots’ front seven had a terrible 2024, there is a player in this class who has the upside of Simmons who can turn things around in an instant. Michigan’s Mason Graham has been one of the best linebackers in college football over the past few seasons while generating plenty of pressure from the interior. With his strength and toughness, he would certainly fit the mold of a Vrabel-like player.

The Titans also drafted Harold Landry in the second round in Vrabel’s first offseason with the team after he provided significant help on the edge in Tennessee. If the Patriots decide to build their front seven on the outside, Penn State’s Abdul Carter is certainly worthy of a top-five pick after a 12-sack season in Happy Valley.

Former Titans executive Ryan Cowden, who worked with Vrabel throughout his tenure at Tennessee, will reportedly join the new Patriots coach. Given how their decision to invest heavily in the top seven in the first two drafts paid off, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Carter or Graham ended up in Foxborough.

Drake Maia will finish top five in rushing touchdowns

Okay, now some actual predictions on the field. As Vrabel needs to fill out his staff, early reports suggest that former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is the early favorite to get the performance that brought him to prominence.

If McDaniels gets the job, we could see Drake May being used more as a runner. McDaniels seemed to suggest that Maie could be a good fit as a designed runner when he talked about the quarterback on Julian Edelman’s podcast, “Name Games” during the preseason.

“He has great size. He’s really athletic. I don’t know where he will fit into the style he will play. I’m interested in how that style will develop. … But guys like that, who have those attributes, you can use them to run the ball as well.”

Considering Vrabel’s penchant for running the ball and McDaniels’ commentary, it seems like May should be used more as a designed runner in 2025. Now, those designed runs might not happen much in the open field. But using his size and speed would be best suited for red-zone situations, where he can either run over defenders between tackles or beat defenders on the outside, as he did in his run against the New York Jets this season.

Ryan Tannehill also used his legs to score when he played under Vrabel. He had seven rushing touchdowns in 2020 and 2021. May, however, is a better runner than Tannehill was. So when all those things add up, Maye should almost be expected to run into the end zone next season.

The Patriots will once again have a top 10 defense

While the Patriots’ offensive woes continued in 2024 and seemed to dominate the headlines, their defensive slump was the biggest concern. They went from seventh in total yards allowed in 2023 to 22nd this past season. They were near the bottom of the league in sacks with 28 and forced just 12 turnovers.

Those numbers should improve under Vrabel in 2025. They’ll likely get linebacker Ja’Vhaun Bentler and defensive tackle Christian Barmore back from injury, which will certainly help. But it looks like Vrabel will have a strong hand in personnel matters and when you consider his defensive background, don’t be shocked if the Patriots end up spending more money in free agency on acquiring defensive talent than they do on offensive linemen.

There are likely more position players of need for the Patriots who will be free agents in the offseason. Edge rushers Azeez Ojulari and Josh Sweat could be options for them. Safeties Jevon Holland and Talanoa Hufanga would help their back line after Kyle Dugger’s struggles this year. Cornerbacks DJ Reed and Charvarius Ward would serve as strong CB2 options opposite Christian Gonzalez.

When you consider how variable the defense is from year to year, the resources to improve their defense and their 2025 schedule (matchups against the New York Jets, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, Carolina Panthers), the Patriots defense should almost be expected to be noticeably better in 2025. coach like Vrabel in the mix, however, they should crack the top 10 again.

The Patriots will sneak into the postseason at 9-8

Back to that list of opponents, the Patriots’ 2025 schedule is one of the easiest in the league. Eleven of their 17 games next season come against teams that had a losing record in 2024. Eight of their games will be against opponents who have won five or fewer games in 2024.

Of course, these teams will likely look at the Patriots as a likely win on the schedule at this point in the offseason. There are also many more moves to make. But there have been several games this season where a coaching decision could have changed the final score against the Patriots. Their poor clock management allowed the Seattle Seahawks to find three points before halftime in their Week 2 loss. They decided not to go for two after Maie’s touchdown pass at the buzzer against the Titans. They never doubled Puck Natsu or Cooper Kupp in a one-score loss to the Los Angeles Rams as their star receivers shredded them. They weren’t aggressive after a key turnover in a late loss to the Indianapolis Colts.

Obviously, you can always play the second-guessing game with either team. But the Patriots’ mistakes under Mayo seemed to outweigh most others, costing them games against teams they were either evenly matched against or victories that were within reach.

Vrabel is sure to raise the floor in New England like he did in Tennessee. When you look at the quality of the Patriots’ opponents for next season, a higher floor could be enough to make the postseason just that. Add in May’s likely improvement and the expected improvement of the defense, and the Patriots could win a game or two they shouldn’t.

With Vrabel in town, there should be more winnable games on the table. They will beat most of them to enter the playoffs as the 7th seed in the AFC.