Arina Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Australian Open prediction, odds, selection



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Aryna Sabalenka takes on Paula Badoša in the 2025 quarterfinals. Australian Open. Our Australian Open quota series has our Sabalenka-Badoša forecast, odds and picks. Find out how to watch Sabalenka-Badoš.

The semifinals are here at the 2025 Australian Open. We didn’t get a rematch of last year’s women’s semifinal between Coco Gauff and Arina Sabalenka u Melbourne. Paula Badosa beat Gauff in the quarterfinals and reminded everyone that even though Coco Gauff is an elite competitor, her forehand is still vulnerable enough that a good player — Badosa is the 11th seed in this tournament — can expose her and pick her apart. Badosa finally reached the first major semi-final. If you follow women’s tennis closely, at least at the majors, you know that the WTA has produced many first-time major semifinalists over the years. There are usually several each calendar year, and Badosa has become that player at the 2025 Australian Open. Follow the French Open to see if another new semifinalist enters the picture of women’s tennis.

Badoša and Arina Sabalenka are good friends on tour. This is not a secret, but it is well known. Many tennis journalists and commentators look for animosity and try to create a sense of bad blood among tennis players. This is exactly the opposite. It will be fascinating to see if this helps Badosa relax and play freely. Obviously, the opportunity for the first major semi-final is extremely difficult and can become oppressive. Athletes can overthink and become overly concerned with the stakes and importance of the match, which disrupts their game and robs them of the fluidity of their thinking and movement on the field in real time. Perhaps the friendship with Sabalenko will allow Paula Badoš to play as well as she can, and she certainly was great in this tournament Down Under.

Sabalenka is gearing up for her third consecutive Australian Open and second straight major title on hard courts, having won the 2024 US Open last September. Sabalenka hasn’t been too great this tournament — she lost a set in the quarterfinals to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova — but she’s responded well whenever she’s been tested. Let’s see how much of a test her Spanish friend Badosa can give her.

Here are Sabalenka-Badoša Australian Open oddscourtesy of FanDuel.

Australian Open odds: Sabalenka-Bados odds

Game range:

Sabalenka -4.5 (-112)
Badossa +4.5 (-118)

Moneiline:

Sabalenka -3

Badosa +280

To win the first set:

Sabalenka -2

Badosa +220

Total matches in the match:

Over 20.5 (-122)
Under 20.5 (-110)

Total games won:

Sabalenka over 12.5 (-108)
Sabalenka up to 12.5 (-124)

Related newsThe article continues below

Bados over 9.5 (-110)
Badosa under 9.5 (-120)

How to watch the Australian Open

Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30 PM PT

TV: ESPN2, ESPN Plus

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Why Aryna Sabalenka will win

Arina Sabalenka is the best tennis player on the planet. No one can question that statement. Iga Sviatek is number 1 on clay. Wimbledon grass is a special reality. On concrete, however, Sabalenka is the gold standard, having won both majors on hard court last year and reaching each of the last four major finals on hard court. There is a pattern here. No need to bet against it.

Why Paula Badosa will win

Her friendship with Arina Sabalenko does not guarantee that Paula Badosa will play well, but it certainly gives her the opportunity to ignore the pressure of the occasion and simply enjoy tennis. If Badossa can get into that mental space, she could put on a great match and win. Sabalenka lost a set in the quarterfinals and is not playing her absolute best tennis. If she’s anything less than her best, Badosa can beat her.

Sabalenka-Badosa Final Prediction and Selection

We’re leaning on Bados with the spread and props for winning multiple games, as this matchup will likely produce at least one set that goes 12 games (one player needs seven games to win a set) and could easily go to three sets.

Final Sabalenka-Badosa Prediction and selection: Badosa +4.5

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2025-01-22 07:40:00

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